Thursday's severe weather risk rises; hail, high winds possible

Maps show severe weather potential Thursday especially SE of the Twin Cities

Severe weather risk areas Thursday
Severe weather risk areas Thursday.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Thursday’s severe weather forecast just got a boost.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded Thursday’s severe weather risk across southeastern Minnesota to an “enhanced” level. That’s level 3 of the 5 severe weather categories NOAA uses in the daily severe weather convective outlooks.

Hail, high wind, tornado risks

Let’s break down Thursday’s severe weather threat a bit. The outlooks assign probabilities to various severe weather threats like high winds, hail and tornadoes.

Overall there’s a 30 percent chance of severe hail greater than 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of any location across southeastern Minnesota Thursday.

Large hail risk
Large hail risk within 25 miles of any location Thursday.
NOAA

There’s a 15 percent risk of damaging winds in excess of 58 mph.

Damaging wind risk
Damaging wind risk within 25 miles of any location Thursday.
NOAA

And a 5 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any location in southeastern Minnesota Thursday.

Tornado risk
Tornado risk within 25 miles of any location Thursday.
NOAA

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km model develops storm clusters around midday in southeastern Minnesota, with more widespread action developing through Thursday evening.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between noon and 10 p.m. Thursday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Bottom line? Stay aware of the potential for severe weather watches and warnings later Wednesday and especially Thursday.

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