October reality check: Wind-driven rains Wednesday

2 feet of snow possible in the Black Hills

Rain and wind forecast Wednesday
Rain and wind forecast Wednesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

October is about to remind us what month we’re living through.

A powerful October storm winds up and rolls through the Dakotas Wednesday. The system brings widespread rainfall and gusty winds to Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model shows rain waves rolling through Minnesota Wednesday. The loop below runs between 1 a.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday.

NOAA GFS model
NOAA GFS model 1 am Wednesday to 1 am Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Heaviest rainfall west

The heaviest rainfall with this system favors western Minnesota closer to the center of the system. An inch of rain looks likely in much of western Minnesota. The Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota look more likely to pick up .25 to .5 inches of rain by Thursday.

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Wind gusts over 40 mph will cover most of Minnesota Wednesday.

Rain and wind forecast Wednesday
Rain and wind forecast Wednesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Could be worse…

We still need the rain in Minnesota. But at least we’re not getting heavy snow. The Black Hills in western South Dakota ride the colder side of the storm.

Winter storm warnings are up for 2 to 3 feet of snow in the Black Hills.

Snowfall forecast for the Black Hills
Snowfall forecast for the Black Hills.
Rapid City NWS office

Some forecast models are cranking out prolific snowfall totals in excess of 3 feet locally in the Black Hills.

NOAA GFS model snowfall output
NOAA GFS model snowfall output.
NOAA via pivotal weather

Temperatures the rest of this week will feel more like October.

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities National Weather Service