Monday p.m. shower and thunderstorm chances; lots of 70s this week

More info on our drought

Some showers will move across southern Minnesota and into Wisconsin this morning and early Sunday afternoon. The southern part of the Twin Cities metro area could see a passing shower this morning and early afternoon.

An isolated thunderstorm is also possible today in southern Minnesota and on into Wisconsin. You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday highs will be in the 60s across the northern third or so of Minnesota, with mainly lower 70s elsewhere.

Monday p.m. thunder chances

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Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in western Minnesota by late Monday afternoon. Showers and t-storms will then expand into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Monday evening and continue into the overnight hours of Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning:

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Simulated radar Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Check forecast updates on Monday, since a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be mainly in the 70s, with some 60s in northeastern Minnesota:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Monday dew points will be in the comfortable 40s and lower 50s in most areas:

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Monday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Back to forecast high temps, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s Tuesday, followed by mid 70s Wednesday and around 80 on Thursday. Highs then retreat to the mid 70s on Friday.

Above-normal temps are expected next weekend and into the beginning of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Sept. 17 through Sept. 21:

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Temperature outlook Sept. 17 through Sept. 21
NWS Climate Prediction Center

Drought update

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, which was released Thursday morning, shows that 85.6 percent of Minnesota is in drought right now, with almost 6 percent (shaded dark red) in exceptional drought:

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Drought report released Thursday morning
U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Extreme drought (shaded medium red) covers almost 31 percent of Minnesota. The extreme drought area stretches across a wide swath of northern Minnesota.

Most of the seven-county Twin Cities metro area is in moderate drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor.

You can see additional drought info, posted by the Twin Cities office of the NWS, here. One of the graphics featured on the NWS site shows the extremely low streamflows in north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

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Streamflow conditions
NWS/USGS

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.