Smoky edge for Twin Cities; rain chances emerge later this week

Air quality may improve by Wednesday

Canadian wildfires and smoke
A massive smoke shield from Canadian wildfires covers most of the U.S. and Canada Monday afternoon.
Zoom Earth via NOAA

We’re still tracking smoke plumes from dozens of Canadian wildfires upstream from Minnesota.

So far more than 6.8 million acres have burned in Canadian wildfires in 2021. More than a million of those acres have burned in dozens of fires ringing Canada’s massive Lake Winnipeg just north of Minnesota.

The massive Kenora 51 Fire east of Lake Winnipeg has already burned more than 453,000 acres. You can see the massive smoke shield sprawling across several Canadian provinces and spilling into Minnesota on the Zoom Earth image at the top of this post.

Minnesota rides the smoky edge

The thickest smoke plumes favored western Minnesota Monday. Air quality readings ranged from good in southeast Minnesota, to unhealthy in the west.

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Air Quality Index
Air Quality Index at 5 p.m. Monday
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

NOAA’s HRRR near-surface smoke product puts the heaviest smoke into Tuesday morning across central Minnesota with the Twin Cities on the southern edge.

NOAA HRRR model near surface smoke product
NOAA HRRR model near-surface smoke into Tuesday morning.
NOAA

Stronger southerly winds Wednesday should help push smoke northward and improve air quality over much of Minnesota.

Rain ahead?

Most of Minnesota remains dry through Wednesday, but a couple of fronts passing Wednesday and this weekend will bring rain chances.

NOAA’s GFS model paints pockets of rainfall across different parts of Minnesota from Wednesday into Sunday.

NOAA GFS model Wednesday into Sunday
NOAA GFS model Wednesday into Sunday
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Forecast models are still working out potential rainfall totals. But early indications are that some more widespread 1 to 2-inch rainfall totals could occur by Monday. There are also indications of some pockets of rainfall above 2 inches.

Stay tuned.