Periods of rain/thunderstorms Sunday; windy and chilly Monday

A severe thunderstorm is possible Sunday and Sunday evening

Rain falls in St. Paul
Rain falls in downtown St. Paul on Sunday morning, June 20, 2021. It was a welcome sight after much of the state has seen abnormally dry conditions in recent weeks.
Andrew Krueger | MPR News

I wish we could be talking about beautiful weather this Father’s Day, but that’s not in the cards.

Many of us saw some rain showers this morning, and some locations also saw and heard a thunderstorm. Additional periods of rain are expected in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening, with some embedded t-storms at times. Many locations will see one-half-inch or more of rain:

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Forecast rain totals Sunday through Sunday evening
National Weather Service

Severe weather outlook (updated at noon)

Some strong or severe thunderstorms are possible this Sunday afternoon and evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (yellow-shaded) of severe weather Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening from the central and southern portions of the Twin Cities metro area into south-central and southeastern Minnesota, plus southwestern Wisconsin and portions of west-central Wisconsin:

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Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

The dark-green shaded area (which includes the northern portion of the Twin Cities metro area) indicates a marginal risk of severe weather this Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening; meaning that an isolated severe t-storm is possible.  The severe weather outlook is updated several times each day by the Storm Prediction Center.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Cool and breezy Monday

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 80 degrees this time of year. A few spots in the metro area could touch 70 degrees Monday afternoon. Monday highs will be in the 60s in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Monday afternoon dew points will be very dry, in the 30s and 40s:

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Monday 1 p.m. forecast dew points
National Weather Service

Monday will be breezy, with wind gusts of 20-26 mph in many locations:

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Monday 1 p.m. forecast wind gusts
National Weather Service

Forecast wind gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph.

Temperature trends

Twin Cities high temps are projected to reach the upper 70s Tuesday. We could top out in the upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday and Thursday. Metro area highs then retreat to the lower 80s on Friday.

How dry has it been?

The weekly drought update from U.S. Drought Monitor indicated moderate drought (shaded beige) in much of western and southern Minnesota, plus parts of central Minnesota and the southern half of the Twin Cities metro area:

U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota
U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota
USDA/UNL

The orange-shaded areas in far southern Minnesota and parts of the northwest are in severe drought. The counties shaded yellow are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor.

Parts of southeastern Minnesota saw significant rainfall on Thursday, but that was after the Tuesday data cutoff for the map. Most areas had a fairly dry week.

Before today, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport had tallied measurable rain on just one day this month. The June rainfall total at MSP airport was 2.41 inches below normal through Saturday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.