A mild Saturday; update on the Sunday night/Monday snow

Arctic chill for much of next week

Last Saturday we had snow, sleet, light rain, drizzle and pockets of freezing drizzle. This Saturday will be much nicer than that!

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday afternoon highs in the 30s, with a few upper 20s in parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota. Some spots in far southern Minnesota could reach the lower 40s. Our average high temp is 30 degrees in the Twin Cities this time of year, but we’re shooting for metro area highs in the upper 30s.

Sunday highs range from the teens in far northwestern Minnesota to near 40 in the far southeastern corner of Minnesota:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Chillier air spreads across Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday night and Monday:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Many areas will see Monday highs during the morning, with slowly falling temps through the day. Then the arctic cold settles in for a few days.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 3 above zero on Tuesday and around zero Wednesday, followed by upper teens on Thursday and upper 20s Friday. Our early morning lows will be below zero on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with our coldest lows in the teens below zero early on Wednesday.

Wednesday morning lows are impressively cold all across Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

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Wednesday morning forecast lows
National Weather Service

Some spots in northern and central Minnesota will dip into the 20s below zero late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

Snow update for late Sunday into Monday

Far northern Minnesota could see some scattered snow showers this Saturday/Saturday night, and a few spots in the north could also see a bit of sleet and freezing drizzle at times. There will also be a chance of snow showers or a wintry mix in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin on Sunday.

You can hear updated weather information on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

An area of snow spreads into Minnesota Sunday evening and expands across most of Minnesota overnight Sunday night, continuing into Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon:

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Simulated radar from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

How much snow will we get?

This forecast will be tweaked as we get closer to Sunday night, but the heaviest snow will tend to be from central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin and part of west-central Wisconsin:

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Sunday night/Monday snow
National Weather Service

Metro area snow totals by Monday afternoon could range from around 2 inches in the far south metro to 4 or 5 inches in the far north metro. Stay tuned.

The Duluth NWS office posted the following map, showing the odds of 4 or more inches of snow:

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Chances of 4+ inches of snow Sunday night/Monday
National Weather Service

The probabilities are only posted for counties for which the Duluth NWS office issues forecasts.

Mild start to December

Our average Twin Cities temperature (at MSP airport) is running 2.6 degrees warmer than normal this December:

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December 2019 data for MSP airport
National Weather Service

The arctic cold of the coming week will flip our December average temp into the colder-than-normal category.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.