What are the historical odds of a white Christmas in Minnesota?
Odds vary greatly across Minnesota
We’ve come to expect a white Christmas in Minnesota. But in other parts of the country, a white Christmas is often just a fantasy.
As you would expect, the odds for a white Christmas increase as you move north in the U.S.
Historically in the Midwest, the 50/50-percent line for at least 1 inch of snow cover on Dec. 25 runs from near Des Moines, Iowa, to about Rockford, Ill..
Here are the national probabilities according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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Odds for Minnesota?
There’s plenty of snow cover across Minnesota as of early December.
But what are Minnesota’s historical odds of a white Christmas?
If you live in far northern Minnesota, it’s pretty much a slam dunk. At least 1 inch of snow cover has been observed in 100 percent of years dating back into the 1800s.
And if you’re looking for deep snow on Christmas, the best bet is around Isabella to Finland to the BWCA inland from the North Shore. Isabela has a 100 percent of at least 5 inches on the ground historically on Christmas Day and an eye-opening 73 percent record of 10 inches of snow depth.
The Twin Cities sees at least 1 inch of snow cover in about 72 percent of years. Here’s more from the Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.
In 118 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72 percent of the time. From 1899 to 2017 there have been 34 years with either a "zero" or a "trace." The last time the Twin Cities has seen a brown Christmas was 2015. 2014 was also a "brown Christmas." The deepest snow cover on December 25th was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches. It was also a very cold Christmas in 1983, with the high temperature of 1 degree. It was not the coldest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities. That dubious award goes to 1996 with a "high" temperature of 9 below zero. The warmest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities was 51 degrees in 1922. There was not a white Christmas that year. In fact, the Minneapolis Weather Bureau log book for that day states that the day felt "spring-like."
The lowest odds of a white Christmas in Minnesota? Southwest locations like Pipestone, Tyler, and Luverne where the odds for a white Christmas are about 60 percent.