Warmer with severe storms possible in southern Minnesota late Tuesday
More showers are possible Thursday and into the weekend
Updated 9 a.m.
Southern Minnesota will see potentially strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. It’ll be warmer and breezy statewide. An active pattern persists into Saturday.
Potential for strong storms south Tuesday
It’ll be warmer Tuesday ahead of a cold front and disturbance that will create thunderstorm potential. Highs will be in the low 70s south to 50s far north.
The winds will crank up again from the south at 10-25 mph Tuesday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an upper level disturbance and cold front, and track east late Tuesday afternoon into the overnight.
Create a More Connected Minnesota
MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.
The best chance of severe weather will be across southern Minnesota where there’s a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) up to the Twin Cities.
Most potential energy and instability available for strong to severe storms will be limited to far southern Minnesota into Iowa this afternoon and evening.
One measure of the strongest storms is by looking at where computer models forecast the strongest updrafts in storms. We can measure this by updraft helicity tracks from particular forecast models.
Updrafts are winds moving upward into a storm, feeding it warm and moist air. When updrafts rotate and become stronger, they can produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and, in some cases, tornadoes. The strongest signals later Tuesday are mostly in Iowa but with some lingering activity into southern Minnesota.
Mainly dry Wednesday, but more rain arrives Wednesday night
The sun breaks back out for most of Wednesday, leading to a pleasant day. Highs will generally be in the 60s.
Another round of rain develops Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. It will bring the potential for another soaking rain.
Sunshine breaks back out Friday but we’re in for potentially more showers Friday night into Saturday.
Sun returns Sunday and it’s looking very pleasant with highs in the low 70s and 60s.