MPR’s chief meteorologist on what’s in store for summer
A deep blue late-summer sky over the Weather Lab.
Paul Huttner | MPR News
We ended April with some wet weather, and it looks like we’re going to carry some of that into May.
MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News guest host Nina Moini to debrief Tuesday’s evening storms, give us an idea of what’s in store for summer, forecast the weekend weather, and go over the latest release of the Minnesota Energy Fact Sheet.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: Well, we ended April with some wet weather and looks like we're going to carry some of that into May. So joining me now to take a look at the forecast is MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks for being here, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, my pleasure as always. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, it's always so fun to talk to you. Let's start, though, with this outbreak of tornadoes we've seen across the US in the last week.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's been a wild week for tornado watchers around the Central Plains. Nina, we've had 350 tornadoes in the last week in the Central Plains-- Oklahoma, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, area, Kansas-- a lot of these have done damage. You've seen maybe some of the video.
And it's not just the number, even though we're up to 530 so far, which is a little above average for this time of the year in the US. These have been not just quantity but quality, so to speak. These are some of the strongest tornadoes recorded in terms of Doppler winds, well over 200 miles an hour.
There was a tornado last night near Hollister, Oklahoma, and a lot of these tornadoes have occurred at night, which is really scary. But it was so big, this tornado, that there was what we call a vortex hole where the center of the tornado is. You could see it on Doppler radar, kind of like the eye of a hurricane. That's very unusual.
That tornado, they're saying, could have been a mile wide and maybe the second-strongest tornado behind the El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado in 2013. So it's been a remarkable outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes to the south of Minnesota. Our severe weather season peaks as we head into late May, June, first part of July.
NINA MOINI: Sure.
PAUL HUTTNER: We'll have to see if this pattern holds together. Things could get busy around here in the next month, Nina.
NINA MOINI: All right. Well, yeah, lots of rainfall as well. And I know we were dealing with drought. How much how much rain have we been getting? How is that all being affected?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the drought is gone for about the southern half of Minnesota now. We've had as much as 4 or 5 inches of rain west of the Twin Cities in the last week or two, out around Annandale, which picked up another inch last night. Southern Minnesota got in on some of the action last night-- Winona, 1.4 inches, Rochester, around an inch, at Eden Valley-Watkins area, 1.75, Twin Cities about a half an inch to 8/10. Roseville had 8/10 of an inch.
So that's about it for drought in southern Minnesota. In fact, some of the farm fields now, Nina, they've gone from dry to soggy in southwest and central Minnesota. Especially west of the Twin Cities, there's some standing water. Northern Minnesota, we had that rain last week. When tomorrow's drought update comes out, I expect that we'll see a little bit of improvement, parts of central, northern, maybe northeastern Minnesota tomorrow, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, things can change pretty drastically in a short amount of time. I'm curious about what we can expect through this weekend. I know it's been a bit dreary in recent days. What are you forecasting?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to have a couple of good days to get out and enjoy some nice weather. Now, today is not bad from the Twin Cities south, especially. It's cloudy, mostly, north of the Twin Cities. But we're getting a mixture of sun.
It's breezy again. We're back up with those gusts over 20, 30 miles an hour, but 65 for the high this afternoon in the Twin Cities, 60s in southern Minnesota, 40s and 50s north. Tomorrow, another shot of showers-- in fact, I think they'll be in southwest Minnesota after midnight, Twin Cities by morning rush hour-- 58 for the high. They'll taper off in the afternoon.
Friday looks breezy, sunny, kind of nice, 67, and then another shot of showers Friday night into early Saturday before we clear out-- 62 Saturday afternoon, sunny and warmer on Sunday, Nina-- 70 degrees. That's got the star on my forecast page. That's the best day of the weekend coming up.
NINA MOINI: That's great. That sounds wonderful. And, yeah, it has been very breezy. I'd love to talk to you about a summer outlook. I know it's a ways away. But what are you forecasting for summer 2024?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, well, NOAA does these seasonal outlooks. They're based on large-scale weather patterns in the atmosphere. And they've really grown more accurate in the last couple of decades.
NINA MOINI: OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: Right now, they're favoring warmer-than-normal summer across most of the United States, including most of Minnesota, maybe closer to normal in the northwest corner. And that could bring some extreme heat potential, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Ooh.
PAUL HUTTNER: Now, 100 degrees in the Twin Cities doesn't happen as often as you might think. It's about every 4 or 5 years--
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: --on average. The last time we hit 100 in the Twin Cities was June of 2022, so almost 2 years ago. We hit 101. But with that heat and with the warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean, potential for a record to near-record number of Atlantic hurricanes. The record is 30 named storms. I've seen forecasts that go that high, Nina, or even a little bit higher.
So it could be warm in Minnesota. It could be very dangerous in the Atlantic Ocean for hurricanes this summer.
NINA MOINI: We know you'll keep us posted-- sounds like it might be busy. How about a preview of your Climate Cast for the week for us?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, Minnesota just released a new energy fact sheet about the amount of renewable energy, clean energy. We're up to 33% renewable energy now for electricity production in Minnesota. So we're going to talk and get an update on that. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: All right. Thanks so much for joining us, Paul. Always fun to talk to you.
PAUL HUTTNER: You too. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That's MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. You can hear him later this afternoon on All Things Considered with Tom Crann. And for weather updates and maps, visit the Updraft blog at mprnews.org.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, my pleasure as always. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, it's always so fun to talk to you. Let's start, though, with this outbreak of tornadoes we've seen across the US in the last week.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's been a wild week for tornado watchers around the Central Plains. Nina, we've had 350 tornadoes in the last week in the Central Plains-- Oklahoma, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, area, Kansas-- a lot of these have done damage. You've seen maybe some of the video.
And it's not just the number, even though we're up to 530 so far, which is a little above average for this time of the year in the US. These have been not just quantity but quality, so to speak. These are some of the strongest tornadoes recorded in terms of Doppler winds, well over 200 miles an hour.
There was a tornado last night near Hollister, Oklahoma, and a lot of these tornadoes have occurred at night, which is really scary. But it was so big, this tornado, that there was what we call a vortex hole where the center of the tornado is. You could see it on Doppler radar, kind of like the eye of a hurricane. That's very unusual.
That tornado, they're saying, could have been a mile wide and maybe the second-strongest tornado behind the El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado in 2013. So it's been a remarkable outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes to the south of Minnesota. Our severe weather season peaks as we head into late May, June, first part of July.
NINA MOINI: Sure.
PAUL HUTTNER: We'll have to see if this pattern holds together. Things could get busy around here in the next month, Nina.
NINA MOINI: All right. Well, yeah, lots of rainfall as well. And I know we were dealing with drought. How much how much rain have we been getting? How is that all being affected?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the drought is gone for about the southern half of Minnesota now. We've had as much as 4 or 5 inches of rain west of the Twin Cities in the last week or two, out around Annandale, which picked up another inch last night. Southern Minnesota got in on some of the action last night-- Winona, 1.4 inches, Rochester, around an inch, at Eden Valley-Watkins area, 1.75, Twin Cities about a half an inch to 8/10. Roseville had 8/10 of an inch.
So that's about it for drought in southern Minnesota. In fact, some of the farm fields now, Nina, they've gone from dry to soggy in southwest and central Minnesota. Especially west of the Twin Cities, there's some standing water. Northern Minnesota, we had that rain last week. When tomorrow's drought update comes out, I expect that we'll see a little bit of improvement, parts of central, northern, maybe northeastern Minnesota tomorrow, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, things can change pretty drastically in a short amount of time. I'm curious about what we can expect through this weekend. I know it's been a bit dreary in recent days. What are you forecasting?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to have a couple of good days to get out and enjoy some nice weather. Now, today is not bad from the Twin Cities south, especially. It's cloudy, mostly, north of the Twin Cities. But we're getting a mixture of sun.
It's breezy again. We're back up with those gusts over 20, 30 miles an hour, but 65 for the high this afternoon in the Twin Cities, 60s in southern Minnesota, 40s and 50s north. Tomorrow, another shot of showers-- in fact, I think they'll be in southwest Minnesota after midnight, Twin Cities by morning rush hour-- 58 for the high. They'll taper off in the afternoon.
Friday looks breezy, sunny, kind of nice, 67, and then another shot of showers Friday night into early Saturday before we clear out-- 62 Saturday afternoon, sunny and warmer on Sunday, Nina-- 70 degrees. That's got the star on my forecast page. That's the best day of the weekend coming up.
NINA MOINI: That's great. That sounds wonderful. And, yeah, it has been very breezy. I'd love to talk to you about a summer outlook. I know it's a ways away. But what are you forecasting for summer 2024?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, well, NOAA does these seasonal outlooks. They're based on large-scale weather patterns in the atmosphere. And they've really grown more accurate in the last couple of decades.
NINA MOINI: OK.
PAUL HUTTNER: Right now, they're favoring warmer-than-normal summer across most of the United States, including most of Minnesota, maybe closer to normal in the northwest corner. And that could bring some extreme heat potential, Nina.
NINA MOINI: Ooh.
PAUL HUTTNER: Now, 100 degrees in the Twin Cities doesn't happen as often as you might think. It's about every 4 or 5 years--
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: --on average. The last time we hit 100 in the Twin Cities was June of 2022, so almost 2 years ago. We hit 101. But with that heat and with the warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean, potential for a record to near-record number of Atlantic hurricanes. The record is 30 named storms. I've seen forecasts that go that high, Nina, or even a little bit higher.
So it could be warm in Minnesota. It could be very dangerous in the Atlantic Ocean for hurricanes this summer.
NINA MOINI: We know you'll keep us posted-- sounds like it might be busy. How about a preview of your Climate Cast for the week for us?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, Minnesota just released a new energy fact sheet about the amount of renewable energy, clean energy. We're up to 33% renewable energy now for electricity production in Minnesota. So we're going to talk and get an update on that. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
NINA MOINI: All right. Thanks so much for joining us, Paul. Always fun to talk to you.
PAUL HUTTNER: You too. Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That's MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. You can hear him later this afternoon on All Things Considered with Tom Crann. And for weather updates and maps, visit the Updraft blog at mprnews.org.
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